The Old Testament Predictions about the Coming Messiah
The odds against these events occurring by chance

The First Prediction:

His birth in Bethlehem from the tribe of Judah - Probability: 1 chance in 2400

The Old Testament Prediction:

"But thou, Bethlehem Ephratah, though thou be little among the thousands of Judah, yet out of thee shall he come forth unto me that is to be ruler in Israel; whose goings forth have been from of old, from everlasting." (Micah 5:2)
"The sceptre shall not depart from Judah, nor a lawgiver from between his feet, until Shiloh come; and unto him shall the gathering of the people be."
(Genesis 49:10)
The New Testament Fulfilment:
"Now when Jesus was born in Bethlehem of Judaea in the days of Herod the king, behold, there came wise men from the east to Jerusalem," (Matthew 2:1)
There were twelve tribes in ancient Israel from which Messiah could have been born, yet He was born from the tribe of Judah as Moses prophesied fifteen hundred years earlier. Since there were twelve tribes, the odds were 12 to 1 against Moses guessing correctly the tribe of Christ's birth. In addition there were over two thousand villages and towns in the densely populated area allotted to the tribe of Judah during the first century era. However, to be conservative I used the figure of 1 chance in 2,400 to estimate the odds against anyone guessing that He would be born in Bethlehem and that he would descend from the tribe of Judah centuries before Jesus was born.

The Second Prediction:

He would be preceded by a messenger - Probability: 1 chance in 20

The Old Testament Prophecy:

"The voice of him that crieth in the wilderness, Prepare ye the way of the LORD, make straight in the desert a highway for our God." (Isaiah 40:3)
The New Testament Fulfilment:
"In those days came John the Baptist, preaching in the wilderness of Judaea, And saying, Repent ye: for the kingdom of heaven is at hand." (Matthew 3:1-2)
I estimated the odds as 1 in 20, but historical records do not reveal any other king to my knowledge who was preceded by a messenger such as John the Baptist. To calculate the combined probability of these two predictions we must multiply 2,400 times 20 which equals one chance in 48,000 (or 4.8 x 10^4)that would fulfil both predictions by chance.

The Third Prediction:

He would enter Jerusalem on a colt - Probability: 1 chance in 50

The Old Testament Prediction:

"Rejoice greatly, 0 daughter of Zion; shout, 0 daughter of Jerusalem: behold, thy King cometh unto thee: he is just, and having salvation; lowly, and riding upon an ass, and upon a colt the foal of an ass." (Zechariah 9:9)
The New Testament Fulfilment
"And they brought him to Jesus: and they cast their garments upon the colt, and they set Jesus thereon, And as he went, they spread their clothes in the way. And when he was come nigh, even now at the descent of the mount of Olives, the whole multitude of the disciples began to rejoice and praise God with a loud voice for all the mighty works that they had seen;" (Luke 19:35-37)
Of all the kings of history I do not know of a single king who entered his capital on a colt, as Jesus did on Palm Sunday, A.D. 32 in fulfilment of this prophecy. The combined odds of the three predictions occurring by chance are 50 x 48,000 which equals one chance in 2,400,000. With the addition of every subsequent prediction the laws of probability reveal that the combined odds against anyone fulfilling these multiple prophecies are simply astronomical.

The Fourth Prediction:

He would be betrayed by a friend - Probability: 1 chance in 10

The Old Testament Prediction:

"Yea, mine own familiar friend, in whom I trusted, which did eat of my bread, hath lifted up his heel against me." (Psalm 41:9)
The New Testament Fulfilment:
"And while he yet spake, lo, Judas, one of the twelve, came, and with him a great multitude with swords and staves, from the chief priests and elders of the people. Now he that betrayed him gave them a sign, saying, Whomsoever I shall kiss, that same is he: hold him fast." (Matthew 26:47-48)
Although it is not unusual for a secular king to be betrayed by a close associate the betrayal of a religious leader is quite unusual historically. However, to be conservative, I have assigned the odds of this occurring by chance as only one chance in ten. The combined probability of these four predictions (10 x 2,400,000) is now only one chance in 24 million.

The Fifth Prediction:

His hands and feet would be pierced - Probability:1 chance in 100

The Old Testament Prediction:

"For dogs have compassed me: the assembly of the wicked have inclosed me: they pierced my hands and my feet." (Psalm 22:16)
The New Testament Fulfilment:
"And when they were come to the place, which is called Calvary, there they crucified him, and the malefactors, one on the right hand, and the other on the left." (Luke 23:33)
The combined probability of these five predictions (100 x 24 million) has now reached an astonishing one chance in 2.4 billion (2.4 x 10^9).

The Sixth Prediction:

He would be wounded by His enemies - Probability: 1 chance in 10

The Old Testament Prediction:

"But he was wounded for our transgressions, he was bruised for our iniquities: the chastisement of our peace was upon him; and with his stripes we are healed." (Isaiah 53:5)
The New Testament Fulfilment:
"Then released he Barabbas unto them: and when he had scourged Jesus, he delivered him to be crucified." (Matthew 27:26)
Throughout history most kings who were killed were murdered suddenly. Very few were ever subjected to torture as was inflicted on our Lord Jesus Christ. The odds against this occurring by chance were less than one chance in ten. The combined odds for six predictions (10 x 2.4 billion) now rises to one chance in 24 billion.

The Seventh Prediction:

His betrayal for 30 pieces of silver - Probability: 1 chance in 50

The Old Testament Prediction:

"And I said unto them, If ye think good, give me my price; and if not, forbear. So they weighed for my price thirty pieces of silver." (Zechariah 11:12)
The New Testament Fulfilment:
"And said unto them, What will ye give me, and I will deliver him unto you? And they covenanted with him for thirty pieces of silver." (Matthew 26:15)
Consider how impossible it would be to correctly predict five hundred years in advance the exact price of betrayal that would be paid for the death of a future king. The odds (50 x 24 billion) now rise to one chance in 1.2 trillion (1.2 x 10^12).

The Eighth Prediction:

He will be spit upon and beaten - Probability: 1 chance in 10

The Old Testament Prediction:

"I gave my back to the smiters, and my cheeks to them that plucked off the hair: I hid not my face from shame and spitting." (Isaiah 50:6)
The New Testament Fulfilment:
"Then did they spit in his face, and buffeted him; and others smote him with the palms of their hands." (Matthew 26:67)
Although many kings throughout history were killed, very few were tormented , beaten and ridiculed. However, Jesus Christ bore those stripes for our healing and salvation. The odds of these eight predictions (10 x 1.2 trillion) occurring by chance are now one chance in 12 trillion (1.2 x 10^13).

The Ninth Prediction:

His betrayal money would be thrown in the Temple and then given to buy a potter's field - Probability: 1 chance in 200

The Old Testament Prediction:

"And the LORD said unto me, Cast it unto the potter: a goodly price that I was prised at of them, And I took the thirty pieces of silver, and cast them to the potter in the house of the LORD." (Zechariah 11:13)
The New Testament Fulfilment:
"And he cast down the pieces of silver in the temple, and departed, and went and hanged himself. And the chief priests took the silver pieces, and said, It is not lawful for to put them into the treasury, because it is the price of blood. And they took counsel, and bought with them the potter's field, to bury strangers in." (Matthew 27:5-7)
This complicated prophecy actually seems contradictory on its surface. However, despite its apparent impossibility every detail of this prophecy was fulfilled in precise detail. Judas threw the thirty pieces of betrayal money into the Temple. Later the priests used this money to purchase the potter's field to bury strangers including Judas, who, overcome with guilt, hanged himself. I calculated the odds extremely conservatively as one chance in 200. However, the combined odds (200 x 12 trillion) against these nine predictions occurring have risen to one chance in 2,400 trillion (2.4 x 10^15).

The Tenth Prediction:

He would be silent before his accusers - Probability: 1 chance in 100

The Old Testament Prediction:

"He was oppressed, and he was afflicted, yet he opened not his mouth: he is brought as a lamb to the slaughter, and as a sheep before her shearers is dumb, so he openeth not his mouth." (Isaiah 53:7)
The New Testament Fulfilment:
"And when he was accused of the chief priests and elders, he answered nothing. Then said Pilate unto him, Hearest thou not how many things they witness against thee? And he answered him to never a word; insomuch that the governor marvelled greatly." (Matthew 27:12-14)
When we are accused of a crime we naturally defend ourselves, even when we are guilty. Consider how unlikely this prediction was that a totally innocent man would stand before His accusers in absolute silence without speaking to defend himself. While I assigned the odds as one chance in one hundred, the realistic chances against this event occurring are much higher. The odds against these ten predictions occurring (100 x 2.400 trillion) is now one chance in 24,000 trillion (2.4 x 10^17).

The Eleventh Prediction:

He would be crucified with thieves - Probability: 1 chance in 100

The Old Testament Prediction:

"Therefore will I divide him a portion with the great, and he shall divide the spoil with the strong; because he hath poured out his soul unto death: and he was numbered with the transgressors; and he bare the sin of many, and made intercession for the transgressors." (Isaiah 53:12)
The New Testament Fulfilment:
"Then were there two thieves crucified with him, one on the right hand, and another on the left." (Matthew 27:38)
The continued multiplication of these odds reaches a truly staggering number when we examine the chances that all seventeen prophecies occurred by chance. For these 11 predictions the combined odds are 1 in 2.4 x 10^19

The Twelfth Prediction:

People would gamble for His garments - Probability: 1 chance in 100

The Old Testament Prediction:

"They part my garments among them, and cast lots upon my vesture."
(Psalm 22:18)
The New Testament Fulfilment:
"Then the soldiers, when They had crucified Jesus, took his garments, and made four parts, to every soldier a part; and also his coat: now the coat was without seam, woven from the top throughout. They said therefore among themselves, Let us not rend if, but cast lots for it, whose it shall be: that the scripture might be fulfilled, which saith, They parted my raiment among them, and for my vesture they did cast lots. These things therefore the soldiers did." (John 19:23-24)
Think how unlikely it was that Roman soldiers would bother to gamble to see who would win the right to claim the garments of a crucified prisoner. Yet, the prophecy was fulfilled precisely. The combined odds are now 1 in 2.4 x 10^21
 

The Thirteenth Prediction:

His side would be pierced - Probability: 1 chance in 100

The Old Testament Prediction:

"And I will pour upon the house of David, and upon the inhabitants of Jerusalem, the spirit of grace and of supplications: and they shall look upon me whom they have pierced, and they shall mourn for him, as one mourneth for his only son, and shall be in bitterness for him, as one that is in bitterness for his firstborn." (Zechariah 12:10)
The New Testament Fulfilment:
"But one of the soldiers with a spear pierced his side, and forthwith came there out blood and water." (John 19:34)
The cruelty of the Romans was expressed in the unspeakable pain inflicted on prisoners in their lengthy death on the cross. However, despite their orders to produce a drawn-out death, the Roman centurion was motivated by God to pierce Christ's side with his spear. The blood and water flowing out of Christ's side proved that He had already died before the spear entered His side. The odds against anyone plunging a spear into the side of a man being crucified on a cross is estimated conservatively as one chance in 100, bringing the total odds to 1 in 2.4 x 10^23
 

The Fourteenth Prediction:

None of His bones would be broken - Probability: 1 chance in 20

The Old Testament Prediction:

"He keepeth all his bones: not one of them is broken." (Psalm 34:20)
The New Testament Fulfilment:
"But when they came to Jesus, and saw that he was dead already, they brake not his legs." (John 19:33)
When a prisoner of Rome was crucified, his body was placed on the cross in such a manner that the only way he could breathe was by painfully lifting his upper body, using the strength of his legs, to expand his diaphragm. When the Roman soldiers wished to speed up the death of the condemned prisoner they would break his legs with a club and thus prevent him from lifting himself up to breathe. Within minutes the prisoner would die due to oxygen deprivation and fluid accumulating in his lungs. To avoid desecrating the Sabbath which was about to begin, the soldiers broke the legs of the prisoner on either side of Jesus to assure their quick death. However, in fulfilment of the ancient prophecy, Jesus had already "given up the ghost" and died by his own will. Therefore, they did not break Christ's legs and thus fulfilled the prophecy.

The Fifteenth Prediction:

His body would not decay - Probability: 1 chance in 10,000

The Old Testament Prediction:

"For thou wilt not leave my soul in hell; neither wilt thou suffer thine Holy One to see corruption." (Psalm 16:10)
The New Testament Fulfilment:
"He seeing this before spake of the resurrection of Christ, that his soul was not left in hell, neither his flesh did see corruption." (Acts 2:31)
Obviously, the odds against anyone not dying and their body not decaying, but rising from the dead, are obviously astronomical.
However, I have estimated the odds as only one chance in 10,000 because several individuals were resurrected in the Old Testament, such as the Shunammite widow's son who was raised by Elisha (2 Kings 4:28-37).

The Sixteenth Prediction:

His burial in a rich man's tomb - Probability: 1 chance in 100

The Old Testament Prediction:

"And he made his grave with the wicked, and with the rich in his death; because he had done no violence, neither was any deceit in his mouth." (Isaiah 53:9)
The New Testament Fulfilment:
"When the even was come, there came a rich man of Arimathaea, named Joseph, who also himself was Jesus' disciple: He went to Pilate, and begged the body of Jesus. Then Pilate commanded the body to be delivered. And when Joseph had taken the body, he wrapped it in a clean linen cloth, And laid it in his own new tomb, which he had hewn out in the rock: and he rolled a great stone to the door of the sepulchre, and departed." (Matthew 27:57-80)
The probable site of the tomb of Christ is located just north of the Damascus Gate of the old walled city of Jerusalem, only a few hundred yards from the probable site of Golgotba. When the tomb was discovered in the last century, archaeologists found that only one body depression was ever used. The owner did not complete the stone carving work to bury a second body. In addition, they found a huge cistern capable of holding 200,000 gallons of water beneath the garden., indicating that it was a rich man's tomb. Furthermore, they found the remains of an ancient wine press in the garden.

The Seventeenth Prediction:

The darkness covering the Earth - Probability: 1 chance in 1000

The Old Testament Prediction:

"And it shall come to pass in that day, saith the Lord GOD, that I will cause the sun to go down at noon, and I will darken the earth in the clear day:" (Amos 8:9)
The New Testament Fulfilment:
"Now from the sixth hour there was darkness over all the land unto the ninth hour." (Matthew 27:45)
Although this prophecy is one of the most incredible of the seventeen, the Third History of Thallus, a pagan historian of the third century, reported that there was an unusual darkness that blotted out the sun for a number of hours at the time of Passover in the year A.D.32, the year of Christ's crucifixion. Although Thallus speculated that this darkness was the result of an eclipse, any astronomer can tell you that it is absolutely impossible that an eclipse could have occurred at that time, because Passover was carefully calculated to occur at the time of full moon. The position of the sun, moon, and earth at the tune of the full moon makes it impossible that this darkness recorded by the historian Thallus could have been the result of a natural eclipse. However, his report does confirm that the Bible's prophecy and the New Testament record of its fulfilment is accurate.

This analysis has shown that seventeen detailed prophecies made five centuries before the birth of Jesus of Nazareth, were fulfilled with absolute precision in the life, death, and resurrection of Jesus Christ. The question to consider is this: What are the chances that all seventeen of these predictions occurred by chance rather than by the divine plan of God? Either these seventeen predictions are simply the result of chance or this evidence provides overwhelming proof that God inspired the Bible and is in control of history.
The combined probability against these 17 predictions occurring is equal to 1 chance in 4,800,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 or 1 chance in 4.8 x 10^33.

In other words, there is only one chance in 4.8 x 10^33 that these Old Testament prophets could have accurately predicted these seventeen specific prophecies about the life, death, and resurrection by chance alone. The odds are equally impossible that any man could have fulfilled these detailed prophecies by chance alone. Let any reader assign any other estimates that they might choose that these predictions occurred. Regardless of the size of these estimates for the probability you assign to these individual predictions, you will still be confronted with a combined probability so staggering in its magnitude that it will be impossible to honestly convince yourself that these things occurred by chance. In the unlikely event that you are still not convinced, consider the fact that we have examined only seventeen of forty-eight major prophecies given in the Old testament about the promised Messiah. If we were to calculate the odds against all forty-eight predictions occurring by chance we would arrive at a number so large that it would exceed our capacity to comprehend it.

Some Bible critics have suggested that Jesus of Nazareth, as a rabbi, knew about these predictions and simply arranged the events of His life to fulfil them. However consider the impossibility of any normal human arranging the fulfilment of these specific predictions. How would you arrange to be born in Bethlehem and manage to be descended from the tribe of Judah? How would you arrange for the price of your betrayal to be precisely thirty pieces of silver? How would you arrange to be crucified with thieves and then, to be buried in a rich man's grave? Obviously, only God could either foresee these events in advance or fulfil these precise predictions in the life of Jesus Christ.

These prophecies prove the Bible is inspired by God. When we consider these seventeen specific Messianic prophecies, the odds against any one person fulfilling these predictions by chance alone are absolutely astronomical. To fully grasp the reality that these fulfilled prophecies prove that Jesus Christ is the promised Messiah and Son of God, consider the following illustration:

First, the odds against the prophets correctly guessing all seventeen prophecies are as calculated above:
Next, to fully grasp these incredible odds we must try to get a picture of these odds in our minds. Imagine that every one of these chances was represented by a small grain of sand. Furthermore, imagine that a single grain of sand is painted gold and represents the one chance out of this astronomical number, that Christ fulfilled these predictions by chance. We are going to blindfold you and ask you to search for the single gold-painted grain of sand. Imagine that the entire galaxy known as the Milky Way, encompassing two hundred million stars like our sun plus millions of planets, moons, and asteroids is composed only of these 4,800,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 grains of sand. In a galaxy fllled with this incredible number of grains of sand, your target is the only grain of sand that is painted gold. Remember the galaxy is so vast that if you could travel in the Star Trek Enterprise at the speed of light, 186,000 miles per second, it would still take you a hundred thousand years to cross the galaxy. If we were to blindfold you and send you blindly searching through our entire galaxy to find a single gold-painted grain of sand, you would face the same impossible odds in finding the gold grain of sand as the odds against these seventeen prophecies occurring by chance alone.

With such odds against you, would you bet a thousand dollars that you would find a single grain in a whole galaxy filled with sand? I doubt that you would risk your money on such impossible odds. Yet tragically, every year millions will die who have bet their lives and their eternal souls on the "chance" that these fulfilled prophecies about Jesus Christ are not reliable. They believe they can safely ignore the claims of Christ upon their lives. However, in the light of the overwhelming evidence for the authority of the Bible and the reality of Jesus Christ as God's Messiah, each one of us needs to personally consider the decision we must make about our response to Christ's life, death and resurrection.

In the light of the Bible's own declaration that fulfilled prophecy is the absolute proof that it was written under the direct inspiration of God, I believe the evidence in this chapter provides a staggering proof for the authority of the Scriptures.


[The above is from  "THE SIGNATURE OF GOD" (ISBN 0-921714-28-9) by Grant R. Jeffrey.]
Grant Jeffrey is internationally recognised as a leading researcher and Bible Prophecy teacher.
More than one and a half million readers have read his seven best-selling books.

I wonder what your reaction is to the logic of this verification of God's word? What you have read may or may not have convinced you of the authority of God's word. It should however, have given you a ground of confidence that you have not seen before.

Are you willing to take this search for faith one step further? Have you ever read sincerely through one of the Gospels in the Bible, let's say the Gospel of John?
You may have heard certain verses before like John 3:16. - "For God so loved the world that He gave His only begotten son that whosoever believeth in Him should not perish but have everlasting life." Or John 10:11 - " I am the good shepherd: the good shepherd giveth his life for the sheep."
I mean have you purposely and carefully read through the whole of John's Gospel, taking perhaps a portion each day until after some weeks or even a month, you can say you have read it all?

May I press the point a little more, have you read it each time with an open heart and mind to God, coming to it, not to question it, but even with a prayer like:

"Open Thou mine eyes that 1 might behold wondrous things out of Thy law."

If you were to read John's Gospel each day as suggested - you could find yourself pleasantly surprised. It has been the experience of many to find that the word of God read in the right attitude of mind will evidence its own authority. God the Holy Spirit will verify His own word in your heart. Your faith will not only stand in the conviction of logic but in the power of God.

This is "saving faith"(see below), the faith by which true Christians throughout the centuries have lived and for which many have died.

Ron Smith.

Does God verify His word? If so, how?
If God proves the truth of His word, where then is the need for faith?
First.......
We do not believe that true faith, that is saving faith can be induced by reason.

Logical conclusions do not always meet with the approval of God. God has given our intellect. God maintains it, but we can misuse it.

True faith, the faith that pleases God (Hebrews 11v.6) will believe where it cannot see, it will trust when it cannot understand, and it will jump - like a child into its father's arms, even though he cannot see them.

Bearing this kind of faith in mind, one can see the fallacy of the argument which says, "I will only believe what I can see." The person who says this is simply admitting that he or she is without true faith, and may not even want it.

There will be some "honest agnostics" who will read these 17 prophecies concerning the Lord Jesus Christ and their fulfilment, and will confess that it takes more faith not to believe that God has verified His word than it takes to believe it. Even so, the point of true faith that pleases God will not have been reached. That may come later.


Last updated: 8th January, 2000